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Across the Divide

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Brought to you by your La Plata County Economic Development Alliance

May 11, 2018

In the April 6^th Across the Divide, we talked about Census data showing that mid-sized cities and suburbs were making a comeback.

It’s not just anyone that is driving that population growth though.  Anecdotal and increasingly statistical data is suggesting millennials are powering this trend:

https://www.curbed.com/2018/5/1/17306978/career-millennial-home-buying-second-city

Author Patrick Sisson finds that millennials can “boomerang” to midsized cities under the right conditions.  First, it is typically millennials who are “settling down” and either getting married or considering starting families.  Second, the economics also have to work: generally, the communities need to be cheaper than the big cities; as well as afford good home ownership opportunities.  Finally, there should also be better career opportunities available.  The article also finds that an increasing number of tech jobs are locating to smaller cities.  Other writers, such as Joel Kotkin at City Journal, have documented that there has been strong growth in professional service jobs within small cities which could also be creating opportunities.

Are millennials moving to La Plata County?  Over the last 16 years, the 25-39 year old population has been growing, at best, at the same pace as the county overall.  Usually it’s slower though.  But in the City of Durango, the story is startlingly different:

In the 1990s, barely anyone between 25 and 39 years old moved to Durango. However, in the 2000’s growth in the 25 to 39 year old age group was almost two times faster than the city as a whole.  So far this decade, growth in older millennials is three times as fast as the city overall.

Durango is not only offering more professional opportunities, but remote working is allowing talented young individuals to work from anywhere.  It is getting harder to find couples in and around Durango where at least one of them isn’t working remotely.  If we lack local opportunities, high speed internet is allowing many young professionals to fill the gap.

So, it seems like Durango at least is seeing the millennial boomlet that other small cities are experiencing.  Will other areas in La Plata County benefit?  Only time will tell!

-Roger Zalneraitis, Executive Director

If you come across an article on business, politics, or economics that can have an impact here in the Four Corners, send it over to info@yeslpc.com and we will give you a special thank you courtesy of the investors in the Economic Development Alliance!

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Across the Divide

New ideas from around the world that could impact your business here in La Plata County!
Brought to you by your La Plata County Economic Development Alliance

April 20, 2018

The Robots are Coming!

And Sweden, for one, is happy to welcome their new mechanical overlords:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/27/business/the-robots-are-coming-and-sweden-is-fine.html

The article looks at different elements that might contribute to Sweden’s comfort with automation: a generous social welfare state, effective workforce training, strong unions, and a corporate/employee culture that embraces efficiency as a benefit for everyone.  “No one feels like they are taking jobs away,” says one union leader, “it’s about doing more with the people we’ve got.”

The article also points out that the United States is generally more pessimistic about automation: almost three-quarters of Americans are concerned about robots taking jobs done by people.

How much are we at risk of losing our job to Arnold Schwarzenegger?  The US Department of Labor runs a database called the Occupational Information Network, or O-NET.  One of the analyses O-NET provides is the degree of automation by each job occupation in the United States.  The more automated the job, the easier it is to be replaced by a machine.  The three occupations at highest risk to automation according to O-Net are farmworkers, claims examiners, and travel agents.  About 3% of jobs in the United States, or 3.6 million in total, appear to be “highly automated” and could be subject to machination.

Another important question is:  How much are we here in La Plata County at risk to automation?  Using the O-NET database and workforce data from the Office of Economic Development for Colorado (OEDIT), the Alliance took a look at jobs in La Plata County by automation level:

Of the nearly 28,000 jobs in La Plata County tracked by OEDIT, about 70% of them are either “not automated” or “slightly automated”.  Moreover, the share of jobs in La Plata County that are “not automated” is 15% higher than the national average (1.15 on the righthand axis), while the share of jobs that are “highly automated” is 13% below the national average (.87 on the righthand axis).

Moreover, La Plata County has seen better job creation in the “not automated” or “slightly automated” categories since the end of the recession.  Since 2011, almost three-quarters of all new jobs have come in these two categories.  In contrast, there have been only 35 new jobs total in “highly automated” job categories. That is less than 1% of all new local jobs.

There are jobs at risk of automation in La Plata County.  However, we are less at risk of Terminators than the nation overall, and more of our local jobs are moving toward work that is hard for machines to replicate.  It doesn’t make us immune from automation, but suggests we have more time to see if Sweden’s optimism is warranted.

-Roger Zalneraitis, Executive Director

Hat tip to Stuart Jenkins at Senator Michael Bennett’s office for sending us the New York Times article!

If you come across an article on business, politics, or economics that can have an impact here in the Four Corners, send it over to info@yeslpc.com and we will give you a special thank you courtesy of the investors in the Economic Development Alliance!

Across the Divide

New ideas from around the world that could impact your business here in La Plata County!
Brought to you by your La Plata County Economic Development Alliance

April 6, 2018

The Census has released its population estimates for 2017.  For the first time since the recession ended, the population appears to be shifting back to the suburbs, small cities, and rural areas:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2018/03/26/us-population-disperses-to-suburbs-exurbs-rural-areas-and-middle-of-the-country-metros/

The report found that large urban areas are still the fastest growing areas in the United States.  But small metro regions have seen their population growth increase for two years in a row.  And, for the first time since 2010, rural counties have seen positive population growth as well.

In contrast, La Plata County has seen steady population growth throughout the decade.  In fact, at 1.2% per year, La Plata County has been one of the fastest growing small towns in the United States.  However, from 2016 to 2017 population growth slowed dramatically, to about 0.6%.  That is the slowest growth we’ve seen since the recession.

Incidentally, the fastest growing micropolitan region in the United States is Bozeman, Montana (aka “the town Durango High School graduates move to when they want to leave Durango without leaving Durango”), a trend that has been consistent throughout the decade.

We are tempted to explain La Plata County’s slow population growth as part of the economic troubles facing the San Juan Basin, but there is another local oddity in the data.  According to the new Census estimates, the loss of population in Farmington, NM never happened.  The Census revised Farmington’s population upward by 12,000 people in 2016 alone.

After taking a closer look at the data, we’re not buying it.  The adjustment to Farmington’s population is an 11% increase.  The next largest adjustment in any county in the United States was just over 2%.  And three of the four counties near Farmington- McKinley (Gallup), Cibola (Grants), and Rio Arriba (Espanyola)- all saw downward revisions to their population estimates for 2016.

Is everyone in northern New Mexico suddenly moving to San Juan County?  Probably not.  But the population trends nationally seem to be shifting back to historical norms of modest rural growth, faster small city growth, and suburban expansion in our largest metro areas.  Whether La Plata County and the Four Corners benefits from this will likely depend on renewed job growth in our region.

-Roger Zalneraitis, Executive Director

Hat tip to Eben Harrell for alerting us to this Brookings report!

If you come across an article on business, politics, or economics that can have an impact here in the Four Corners, send it over to info@yeslpc.com and we will give you a special thank you courtesy of the investors in the Economic Development Alliance!